Jul 17, 2008 7:09 pm US/Pacific
Dodgers' Second Half Outlook
What Is The Key To A 'Giant' Second Half?
Scott Bergen
LOS ANGELES (CBS) ―
The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the first half of the 2008 season at 46-49, in second place in the National league West, 1 game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. So how did they get to this point, and how does the second half look?
The main stories thus far have been injuries and poor performances by key players. While the team is in good position in the division, they are below .500 and perhaps playing approximately to their potential. The Diamondbacks jumped out to a great start and went into a terrible slump, bringing them back to within 1 game of Los Angeles. But if their superstar pitchers begin performing to their abilities again, the Dodgers may have no answer.
Injuries to Rafael Furcal, Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny and Juan Pierre have really hurt the Dodgers, and the exceptionally poor batting of Andruw Jones has been a crushing blow. The Dodgers' three highest paid players are Furcal, Schmidt and Jones. With Takashi Saito out for possibly the remainder of the season, the injury bug continues to bite the team.
The Dodgers will play one more road series than home in the second half, but Chavez Ravine was hardly a sanctuary in the first half, so this should not affect them too much. The Dodgers are currently 25-24 at home with 32 games remaining, and 21-25 on the road with 35 games remaining.
The offense struggled throughout the first half and their second half play will be the difference between playing baseball or golf in October. All Star Russell Martin led the team with a .294 batting average (18th in the NL) and runs scored with 49 (tied for 37th). Andre Ethier led the team in homers with 11, which was tied for a dismal 51st in the National League! Matt Kemp was the RBI leader with 51 (tied for 31st).
The pitching truly shined in the first half, even with injuries to would-be co-aces Jason Schmidt and Brad Penny. Chad Billingsley is finally becoming the front-line ace that he has been expected to be. Billingsley is 2nd in the National League in strikeouts with 128 in just 116.1 innings. Billingsley is also the club leader with a 3.25 ERA (11th in NL) and 9 wins. Brad Penny has the dubious distinction of being 3rd in the league in losses with 9. Hong-Chih Kuo and Chan Ho Park have perhaps been vital to the team throughout the season and have performed wonderfully.
As a team, the Dodgers are hitting .253 (12th in the NL), and are 13th in runs scored,12th in on-base percentage, and second to last in homers (one every 49 at bats!). However, they are 2nd in steals out of 16 teams - maybe they need to try stealing home more!
The Dodger starting staff has carried the team for stretches and but has also been helped to a great degree by the bullpen. The overall staff ERA is 3.64, which is tops in the league. Opposing hitters are hitting .250 against them, which is 5th. And they are second in the league in the average number of baserunners allowed. However, the starters have amassed only 43 quality starts in 95 games, which is 11th in the League, meaning that bullpen has had to work harder than 10 of the 16 teams in the league, but has performed well for the most part.
This quality starts statistic may be the most telling for how the second half of the season will play out. All players can get hot or cold, and play better or worse from game to game and month to month, but a relief staff that tires will invariably suffer late in the season. The Dodger starters' numbers have been good, but they need to eat up more innings for the team to stay in the hunt.
The first 22 games of the second half could be crucial for the Dodgers' post season hopes. They will play 16 games against divisional rivals, only 7 of them at home. The Dodgers are 1 game over .500 against the West, which accounts for the majority of their remaining games. The Diamondbacks are 11 games over .500 against the same competition.
In their last 20 games, Dodger pitchers have allowed less than three runs 10 times! If the pitching can overcome the possible loss of Saito for the season, and stay hot for most of the next 67 games, and the offense can find a way to improve their runs per game (the possible return of Furcal in August will help), they have a good chance to stay in the race in the West and possibly to steal the division from Arizona.
(Warning: Bombshell coming...)
Keys: The starters need to pitch deeper into games. Broxton needs to pitch like Eric Gagne (minus the alleged steroids). Keep Kuo healthy! Andruw must start hitting the ball or be released - set a deadline and just pull the trigger (paid $14.7 million for .164 BA, 2 HR and 10 RBI so far). Keep stealing bases and putting pressure on pitchers, but and then hit better with runners in scoring position. Stop considering Kemp, Loney and Ethier as untradeable! Sign Barry Bonds.
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