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Jan 9, 2007 5:13 pm US/Pacific
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Experts Warn That Next Quake Could Be A Big One
LOS ANGELES (CBS) ―
A major earthquake on the southern end of the San Andreas Fault is inevitable and likely will be catastrophic for much of the Southland, experts at a USC seismology conference said Tuesday.
Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey met at USC to discuss how people can get ready for the next big quake.
Tuesday also marks the 150th anniversary of the last major earthquake along the San Andreas fault, which registered a magnitude 7.9. If that quake happened now, as many as 5,000 people would be killed and economic losses would be around $150 billion, according to experts.
"New computer simulations show that a large southern San Andreas earthquake could cause shaking that is stronger and longer than previously anticipated.
The results could be catastrophic," said Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.
A major quake on the southern reaches of the fault could last for more than two minutes, he said.
The average time between major earthquakes along the San Andreas is 150 years, but the southern segment of the fault, which runs from the Salton Sea through the Coachella Valley to San Bernardino, has not slipped significantly in more than 300 years.
"The more we know, the greater our concern," said Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey. "We all must act now individually and in our communities. There are simple things you can do to be ready for this earthquake. We're all in this together, and it is up to each of us to dare to prepare."
Residents should prepare themselves for a major earthquake by strapping top-heavy furniture and appliances to walls, adding latches to kitchen cabinets and security televisions and other heavy objects. Older houses and buildings should be brought up to code.
Only 12 percent of California homeowners have earthquake insurance, according to the Insurance Information Network of California, and damage from seismic events are not typically covered by homeowner policies.
"We need to shift our thinking about earthquakes," said Ellis Stanley, general manager of the Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Department
"The notion that all we can do is pick up the pieces afterwards must be replaced with a new culture of readiness, where we act now to reduce our losses in the next big earthquake. Our individual actions will also make the whole community more resilient."
(© 2007 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)