John Ireland's Blog

 

JUST HOW GOOD ARE THE LAKERS?

I'm not ready to predict the Lakers are going to win the NBA title, or even make it to the finals, but you can make a strong case that they are now the favorite to do both.

I do a lot of work nationally for ESPN, and the impression I get from a lot of the people in Bristol is that the Lakers aren't necessarily a great team, just a hot team.  But I would argue that those things go together.  It's often the hot team that wins the title. 

In a current ESPN Sportsnation Poll, one of the questions asks simply:  "Which team will win the NBA Title?"  It's close, but with just over 66,000 responses cast,  the Lakers are the leader with over 29% of the vote.  

Consider that:

--The Lakers have won 14 of their last 15 games.

--They're the only undefeated team in the playoffs.

--They're the only team to score more than 100 points in each game.

--They lead all playoff teams in assists, points scored, margin of victory, and shooting percentage (49%).  They are second only to New Orleans in three-point percentage (43%).

--Individually, Kobe Bryant is the leading scorer in the playoffs.  Derek Fisher is leading the playoffs in steals.  Pau Gasol is third in blocked shots.  Lamar Odom is averaging a double-double in the playoffs, has yet to attempt a three-pointer (which is good), and is now shooting 46% from the field in the post season.

If you're still not convinced that the Lakers are the team to beat, consider that they have the best coach, the best player, are now the hottest team, and have home court advantage against every team except Boston or Detroit.  Boston looks shaky after going seven games against Atlanta (and almost losing game one to Cleveland), while Detroit's floor leader is now out with an injury.  Any rational person would have to say that the Lakers have the edge in these playoffs, both on and off the court.

Just don't tell the Lakers....I don't want to jinx it. 

Round Two Predictions

After going eight for eight with my round one predictions, let's see if I can stay undefeated in round two:

Lakers vs. Jazz

Utah is the most physical team in the league.  They led the league in fouls per game this season, and they're better at using their fouls than any team in the NBA.  The Jazz will grab, hold, push and hammer the Lakers for the entire series, and several Jazz players will be in foul trouble the whole time.

Having said that, Utah has no answer for Kobe Bryant.  They can't guard him, so they'll foul him a lot....and if Kobe makes his free throws, the Lakers should control most of the games.  Since I respect Jerry Sloan a lot, he'll figure out that won't work and by game three, he will begin double and triple-teaming Kobe.  That's when Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will decide the series.

I like Utah, a lot.  But they just can't compete with the Lakers talent.  I think the Jazz will win one game, but that's it.  Lakers in five.

Hornets vs. Spurs

This is the best series of the second round.  New Orleans is better, faster, younger and deeper than San Antonio.  But I keep telling myself that this is the playoffs, which means a whole new dimension.

The Hornets don't have anybody with any real playoff experience.  Nobody on that team has ever been through this before.  I think that if this series gets played a year from now, the Hornets win it.  But they have to learn how to win in the post season, and they haven't done that.

I also know that the Spurs are old, but they don't look over the hill yet to me.  I think they have one more good playoff run in them.  With all of that championship experience, I just can't imagine that they'll get knocked out by a team that has none.

This is a very hard series to predict.  I know New Orleans is better, and particularly, Chris Paul is better than Tony Parker (who was the key to beating Phoenix in round one).  But I can't pick against the Spurs.  I may regret this....but I'm calling for the Spurs in seven--meaning that San Antonio wins in New Orleans with everything on the line.

I very easily could be wrong about this one.

Celtics vs. Cavs

I know....the Celtics look very beatable after that first round series with the Hawks.  But sometimes people make too much of that.  I think the Hawks scared Boston straight....and the Celts will find their defense.

I'm a huge LeBron fan, but he just isn't enough to beat this team.  The Cavs will win a couple of games, but I'm saying Boston in six.

Pistons vs. Magic

I feel the same way about the Pistons that I do about the Spurs.  I know their old, but I think they still have some gas left in the tank.  And much like the Hornets, Orlando just doesn't have anybody with any playoff experience.

If the Pistons were playing anybody else (Boston, Cleveland, or anybody in the West)...I would pick them to lose.  But they won't lose to Magic--Orlando isn't ready yet.  Detroit in six. 

KOBE WINS THE MVP

The LA Times is reporting that Kobe Bryant will be named the MVP later this week, probably before game two of the Lakers/Jazz series at Staples Center.  Since Mike Bresnahan is the reporter, you can take this to the bank.  I've known Mike for years and put simply, he would never run it unless he had it cold....so this is happening.

I've written about this before, but Kobe deserves this award--for a lot of reasons.  Keep in mind that before the season, he not only asked the Lakers to trade him, he called the owner an idiot, and was furious that the team didn't trade Andrew Bynum for Jason Kidd.

In other words, he started as a goat, and turned himself and his team completely around.  When the Lakers finished first in the most competitive Western Conference ever....he separated himself from the pack.

Here's what I wrote over a month ago when I tried to predict the MVP:

Keep in mind that the MVP award is subjective.  Some people think it means best player.  If that were true, Kobe should have won it for the last three years running.  As for me, I've always voted for the guy who helps his team win more than any other player.  Period.  I never vote for a guy on a losing team, unless he broke tons of records in his respective sport (which almost never happens).

By the way, nobody who plays for the Spurs, Suns, or Celtics gets consideration for this award because those teams have too many stars.  If those teams win, it's a total team effort.  To me, the MVP is always the guy who if you took him away, the team crumbles.  You can't say that about Kevin Garnett in Boston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio or Steve Nash in Phoenix, because they have too much help.  LeBron James fits my criteria, but his team hasn't won enough this year.

For me, it comes down to this:  if either Kobe or Paul leads his team to the best record in the West, that guy gets my vote.  If McGrady passes both to win it (and only if the Rockets finish first, by themselves), I'll reluctantly go with him.  But if any team other than those three takes the top seed, I'm voting for Kobe.

I've reached that conclusion for two reasons:

(1)  Chris Paul has another all-star (David West) and a great defensive center (Tyson Chandler).  Kobe has no other all-star, and hasn't had a full-time center all year.  The Hornets would crumble without Paul, but the Lakers would be the Clippers without Kobe.

(2)  If we were picking teams for a game in the playground, and I had the first pick, Kobe is the guy. From everything he's done since training camp, from forcing the Lakers to make deals, to playing through a broken finger, you just can't say that any player wants to win more than he does.  And given the fact that his team is on top, he's delivered in every way.

I still feel now like I felt then.  I might elevate Garnett or Lebron ahead of McGrady, since the Rockets collapsed after that 22 game winning streak, but I still don't think either KG or LBJ should win it this year.

Kobe deserves the MVP, and over the next few weeks, I think he'll show why.

YOU'RE FIRED!

While we wait for the Lakers to find out which team they'll play next, I thought I'd write a quick blog about the NBA coaching carousel, which happens around this time every year.

The Mavericks were eliminated last night, and today, Dallas fired coach Avery Johnson.  The Suns were eliminated last night, and now word is that Mike D'Antoni is out.  There have also been changes in Milwaukee, Chicago, New York and Charlotte.

I get the changes in the losing cities (the last four listed above), but what's with the firings in Phoenix and Dallas?

If the Suns fire Mike D'Antoni, they are beyond stupid.  D'Antoni is one of the most respected basketball coaches on the planet.  He turned the Suns from a non-playoff doormat into the most exciting team in the league, and has averaged 57 wins a season over the last four years. 

Last year, his Suns probably would have gone to the NBA Finals had the league not suspended Amare Stoudamire and Boris Diaw for stepping on the court during a fight.  Nobody I respect in basketball thought that was a fair decision.

As for this year, when his team was in first place with a record of 38-19, the owner and the GM blew up the roster and traded for Shaquille O'Neal.  They got passed by the Lakers in the standings, and then got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Somebody want to tell me how that is Mike D'Antoni's fault?  He put together the most entertaining team in the league, had more success than the Suns have ever had, and then his own bosses messed it up.  I hope D'Antoni gets another job and goes back into Phoenix and runs his old team off of the court.

I feel the same way about Avery Johnson.  He won 67 games last year, and took Dallas to the NBA Finals the year before (when he was named NBA Coach of the Year).  Then Mark Cuban trades Devin Harris for Jason Kidd.  Kidd is eaten alive by Chris Paul, and the Mavericks get bounced in the first round.

How is that Avery's fault?

The bottom line here is that NBA owners are often spoiled rich guys who don't know how well they have it.  They only care about winning the title, and if they don't, they fire the coach--even if he doesn't deserve it.

Trust me....if the Lakers get upset in the next round of the playoffs, Phil Jackson isn't getting fired.  Jerry Buss tried that once before, and was smart enough to admit his mistake and bring Phil back.  Thank goodness we have an owner in LA who realizes what is important.  If you have a team that wins a lot and has a chance to win it all, it's a huge mistake to blow it up. 

I'll make this prediction right now....both Dallas and Phoenix will have a worse record next year than they did this past season.  And you know what?   Both owners deserve it.

ON TO ROUND TWO

For those of you wondering if the Lakers would ever get back to being the Lakers, happy days are here again.

Last night in Denver, the Lakers became the only team to sweep a series this year, and they did it convincingly.  The Nuggets actually showed up for game four, and LA had to earn it.  Kobe showed why he's the best closer in the game, Luke Walton continued to play great, and Pau Gasol had another "quiet" 20+ scoring night.

Now here's the good news: I have it on good authority that even if Utah eliminates Houston tonight, the Lakers next game won't be until Sunday at Staples Center.  That's five full days off when the team needs it most.

Now if you're a Lakers' fan, root hard for Houston. I know that the Jazz are up three games to one, so winning the series is a long shot. My gut feeling is that the Jazz are going to win no matter what, but even if the Rockets win a game or two, it will drag out the series.  And if Houston pulls off a miracle comeback, that's a better opponent for LA.

On a final note.....

I think I'm going to go eight for eight in my first round playoff predictions, which is nothing to brag about because I picked mostly favorites. But I'm still surprised by a lot of what has happened in round one.  I expected a lot more out of Phoenix and Denver, and didn't think Atlanta could give Boston a series.  Cleveland looks better than I thought they would be, and Dallas looks worse.  I'll predict again after round one is over.

 

PUT A FORK IN THE NUGGETS....THEY'RE DONE

I've been covering sports for more than 20 years, and I don't think I've ever seen what I saw in game three of the Lakers/Nuggets series.

In a playoff game, a professional basketball team just gave up.  Quit.  Threw in the towel.  Don't take it from me, take it from Carmelo Anthony, who is now 4-18 in NBA playoff games.

"In a game like tonight, on our home court, us giving up as a whole is uncalled for," Anthony said. "Yeah. We quit. Everybody. From the coaches to the players, we quit. And I said it.

"I'm not blaming anyone. I'm not pointing the fingers at nobody. I didn't play worth a [expletive] tonight, and I can accept that. But as a competitor, there's no way that I should lay down and quit and lay down on my team like we did tonight."

"You could just sense it," Anthony said. "I'm saying 'we,' because I'm part of this, too. I'm saying I quit. We all just gave up."

Wow.  The Nuggets have the fourth-highest paid team in the NBA.  They have the highest-scoring duo in the league in Anthony and Allen Iverson.  Kenyon Martin is in the middle of a $93 million dollar contract.  And they quit...in a playoff game!

This isn't to take away from what the Lakers have done.  They're playing great, and Luke Walton is playing the best basketball of his career.  When you combine that with the way Kobe, Pau Gasol, Derek Fisher and Lamar Odom are playing....I think the Lakers have the better team.  The Nuggets probably would have lost anyway, but not like this.

I've seen teams go down before, but it's normally because they can't stop the other team from executing.  But that's not the case here.  The Lakers missed 13 free throws.  Nobody on the Lakers scored more than 22 points, or finished in double figures in assists or rebounds.  This was a flat-out case of one team playing hard, and the other team quitting.

Having said all of that, it's important that the Lakers win here in Denver on Monday night.  Utah seems to be in control of their series with Houston, and it would be a mistake to give the Jazz any more time off than the Lakers. 

The Nuggets could win on Monday, but to do that, they would actually have to care.  At this point, they don't.

GAME ONE OBSERVATIONS

Game one of the Lakers/Nuggets series is in the books, and here are a few thoughts:

--I knew Denver was bad defensively, but I had no idea how bad.  Pau Gasol had a monster game (36 points, 16 rebounds, eight assists), but what the numbers don't show is how easy he was able to score.  He made 14 of 20 shots, almost all on lay-ups, dunks or wide open ten-footers.  And he did all of this against the reigning defensive player of the year, Marcus Camby.  The reason for that was the other Nuggets are so bad on defense that Camby had to leave Gasol, just to protect the basket.  When he did, Gasol did a good job of getting open, and the other Lakers did an even better job of getting him the ball.  The Nuggets have to fix that, or they can't win the series.

--I've always been a huge fan of Allen Iverson.  I think he's underrated as scorer, even though he's in the top five in scoring almost every year.  I think he's one of maybe five guys in the whole league who can take over a game by himself at any time, and I've seen him do it.  In this game, he was heating up in the second half...scoring from all over, even when the Lakers played near-perfect defense.  He's so quick off the dribble, that when he was scoring, he was breaking down the defense to the point that his teammates, especially Linas Kleiza and Carmelo Anthony, were left wide open for jumpers.

That's why I can't figure out, for the life of me, why he mouthed off to the ref and got ejected in the fourth quarter. The Lakers led by 19 at the end of the third, and Iverson helped the Nuggets get back in it in the fourth.  With four minutes to go, he rattled off seven straight points to cut the lead to nine.  A minute later, when he knew he was his team's best chance for a comeback, he shot his mouth off twice to Ken Mauer and got tossed.  In a playoff game with his team down by only 11 points.  I can't defend that.  I was a selfish, stupid move by a guy who I always thought was smarter than he came across.  Now, I seriously question a team that has Iverson and Anthony as their go-to guys when the games really get decided.

--Kobe Bryant scored four points in the first half.  He was his usual self in the second, scoring 28 points, but the fact that he only scored four (on two of ten shooting), and the Lakers still won, is a really good sign for Los Angeles.  I don't see him starting another game like that, especially in the playoffs.

--I'm still sticking with my original prediction that the Lakers will win this series in six games, but I'm assuming the Nuggets are capable of making adjustments.  On paper, Denver has a great team...maybe the most talented starting five in the whole league.  But talent without brains never wins in a tough series, and Denver needs to smarten up.

Having said that, I still think the Lakers are in for a tough series here.  It won't be easy to win in Denver, and if the Nuggets can win two of the next three, this turns into a three-game series, where any team can win.  A lot of people think the Lakers will dismiss Denver with little or no trouble....I'm just not one of them.

I'll blog again after game two.

 

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

OK....here we go.  I haven't been this excited about the playoffs since Shaq left town, so just for fun, I'll take a crack a predicting each one of the first round series.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Lakers vs. (8) Nuggets

The star power alone in this series should make it a blast to watch.  Kobe, Gasol, Carmelo and Iverson in a seven-game series?  The ratings for this should be gigantic.  I think the Nuggets will present a bigger challenge to the Lakers than most people think.  I wouldn't be surprised if they win one of the first two games at Staples Center.  But defense tends to decide a long series, and the Nuggets don't play any.  Lakers in six.

(4) Utah vs. (5) Houston

Houston has home court in this series, but it won't matter.  Utah is too big and too physical for the Rockets, especially without Yao Ming and Rafer Alston.  Jazz in five.

(2) New Orleans vs. (7) Dallas

This will be a great series.  Dallas has playoff-tested guys who live for this stuff.  New Orleans is a wild card, having never been here before (at least not with Chris Paul).  Still, I'm taking the Hornets.  I've been waiting all year for New Orleans to fold, and they just haven't.  This is the hardest series to pick....but I'm taking the Hornets in seven.

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Phoenix

A blockbuster....the best match-up of the entire first round.  You can flip a coin here, because anything can happen.  I really think Phoenix can pull the upset here, but when you consider the Spurs' coach, their defense, their history, and the home court--I'm taking San Antonio, in seven.  I'll add this:  if Phoenix has a chance to win this series in game six, they better deliver the knockout.  There is no way they win a game seven in Texas.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Celtics vs. (8) Hawks

One word: sweep.  Celtics in four.

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Washington

The Cavs have home court, and the Wizards' Gilbert Arenas has already predicted his team will knock LeBron out.  I don't see it.  LeBron is the best player in the East, and he'll carry the day, especially at home.  Cavs in six.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Philadelphia

I really like the Sixers.  I think they're one of the most improved teams in the league, and they're athletic.  They aren't good enough to beat Detroit, but they'll win a couple of games.  Pistons in six.

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Toronto

Two young teams that are on the rise.  I like both rosters, but Orlando has Dwight Howard and a better coach.  Orlando in five.

After the first round, I'll see how I do and predict again.  Meanwhile, I'll blog regularly throughout the Lakers/Nuggets series....so keep checking back.